Which reactions a country may have when
facing an international dispute?
Diplomacy?
Sanctions?
Hybrid war?
War?
Whether you are a political/intelligence advisor or analyst, a diplomat, a businessperson, a researcher or a journalist, IDFOR is pleased to provide forecasts to the likely reactions countries may have in a backdrop of political, economic, defense, technological and territorial dispute.
Knowing in advance the likely reactions of a foreign opponent – or the mutual reactions between third countries in dispute – places an international player in a position of advantage, a crucial factor for decision-making process and mobilization of political, economic and military assets.
What is the IDFOR model?
The IDFOR model is a complementary tool for the analysis of international relations, aimed at identifying the likely reactions of governments in a situation of dispute. IDFOR provides a forecast based on an analysis of international relations that comprises economic, political, military, ideological, historical, cognitive and psycological aspects that shape the minds of political leaders and ruling elites, and impact the decision-making process in international relations.
The formulas of the model create interactions and weightings between a set of factors and subsets of variables that influence decision-making processes in the international area. The model is not available to the public. Interested parties are invited to submit consultations, pay the required amount, and then receive a final report (in the format of a chart).
How does it work?
The analysis unfolds in six consecutive stages, structured in spreadsheets with original IDFOR formulas that generate a progressive accumulation of scores for specific categories of dispute. The model links elements of economic, political and military power, with cultural and ideological variables that shape the cognitive and psychological set up of the ruling elites of a country, ultimately affecting their decision-making process, consciously or not.
IDFOR proposes a “bottom-up” approach for the analysis of international relations: not departing from traditional theories of power, but rather from another set of criteria and variables, each one with its own specific weight, which are rated and weighted according to the particularities of the countries under analysis.
The model consists of 6 Spreadsheets, 12 Reference Charts and more than 100 variables. The profiles of the selected countries are defined upon 10 factors that can influence the international movements of a sovereign state: Civilizing inheritance; Political regime; Economy; Defense / Security; Cultural formation; Educational and technological level; Religion; Ideology; Geography and Ethnic formation.
Based on the definition of the profile of the country under analysis, its reactions are forecasted for 5 potential backdrops of international dispute, namely: Defense / Security; Economy; Policy; Territory and Technology. The likely reactions are selected from a chart containing a standard set of alternatives, distributed in three subsets: “Appeasement”, “Encirclement” and “Military mobilization”, with successive degrees of escalation. The final score achieved for determining the “country reaction” will display the forecast for one or more of 5 types of international dispute, in two formats: regular and extreme (see here an example of a real case of international dispute).
The model also indicates the likely mutual replies of the two countries under analysis, based on a standardized chart, with formulas that appropriate the scoring asymmetries identified in the model for each of the countries under analysis, and, from that point, generate a score from where a likely reply will be selected.
What IDFOR offers:
Forecasts for the likely reactions a country may have in a bilateral dispute, in 5 categories: political, economic, defense, technological and territorial dispute.
Forecasts in two formats: regular setting and extreme setting.
Possibility of making comparative analysis among country reactions, due to the model´s standard set of profiling criteria, variables and formulas, using internationally recognized data sources, with no items subject to idiosyncratic interpretations of the current international scenario.
Steps of the model
Starting the identification of the COUNTRY REACTION - Framing the COUNTRY PROFILE to the 5 potential types of dispute.
Second level of defining of the COUNTRY REACTION - Applying the weight of the 5 types of potential dispute.
Third level of defining the COUNTRY REACTION - Applying the impact of externalities.
Consolidation of the COUNTRY REACTION - Applying the impact of critical national interests.
Presentation of the FORECAST(S), based on the consolidated COUNTRY REACTION(S) for each of the two countries under analysis, in two formats: Regular Setting and Extreme Setting. The model also provides the mutual COUNTRY’S LIKELY REPLY(IES) to the reaction(s) of its opponent.